– One of the worst ways to predict how many wins a certain NFL team will have over the course of a season is to wrongfully assume that the team will win the same amount of wins or losses as they did last year. Here’s how to properly predict it:
– If a team won more than 8 games last season, they will probably win less than what they won last season than the upcoming season. Vice versa is also true. This is due to the affect of the draft selections, and strength of schedule that changes each year.
– An easy way to predict how many wins a team will have in the upcoming season is to take the team’s expected number of wins last year, multiply it by 3, add 8, then by divide 4.
– Do consider the strength of schedule.
– Turnover differential: a team with a turnover adjustment of +10, penalize it by 37.5 points. Increase its points for by 15, and decrease its points against by 15.
– When predicting which team will win in an upcoming head-to-head game, try not to put too much emphasis on each team’s win-loss records. instead, put more emphasis on:
– How many points did each team lose by on average so far? -How many points did each team win by on average so far?
– The quality of each teams’ wins. What good teams have they beaten, and what bad teams have they lost to?
-If the numbers come out to be close, then consider the quality of each team’s field goal kickers.
-Turner differential. Remember, turnovers are 82.5% of the time luck-based, so you should add 3.75 points to a team’s “lose by” total for every turnover it commits, and subtract 3.75 points to a team’s “won by” total for every turnover in its favor.
– If you do decide to buy points, never buy more than.5 point in any game. Assuming that you get good odds for buying points, only buy .5 point if your team has a line of +2.5; +3; +6.5; +7; -2.5; -3; -7; or -7.5.
For example if the original spread for your team is +2.5, then it can be smart to buy.5 point to bring the spread to +3 ONLY IF you get good odds for buying points. Otherwise, don’t.
– In NCAAF (College Football), Only buy .5 point for your team if it has a line of +6.5; +7; -7; or -7.5
– Do a 2 team teaser when your team is a favorite between -7.5 to -8.5 on the spread, or underdog between +1.5 to +2.5 on the spread.
Your win rate might increase so radically if you tease teams that fall into the above range that you can actually blindly tease all of the NFL teams that fall in the above criteria and win over the long term! Keep in mind that although past results don’t guarantee future performance, my grueling research has shown that it is actually a profitable betting strategy over time based on historical data.
Hope you enjoyed these American football handicapping tips Richard! Put them to good use