Friday, January 31, 2014

Picking A Longshot Horse To Bet On

A horse racing betting system usually involves looking at a number of factors to find the horse that is most likely to win.  However, the problem with finding that horse is that it he may not be the horse with the best value and beating horseracing by picking favorites is not going to happen.  In my opinion,  picking longshots is a better way to win money at horse betting.
Just exactly what does constitute a true longshot in horse racing?   As a general rule, it can be said that a longshot would have odds beyond 8/1.  Picking longshots is not always easy but these  bets are what pay the most and longshots in horseracing make for exciting  payoffs for those handicappers willing to pick longshots.
Many factors must be considered to ferret out a worthwhile longshot on which to wager.  An expert handicapper will combine elements ranging from weather and track conditions to considerations involving recent results, riders and other factors.
Horse  racing favorites have low payoffs .   That is why these horses can win about a third of the time and still you do not make any money by betting them.  How do we know when favorites are weak?  One way  is to look at a horse’s past performances in the “Daily Racing Form”.  As a rule, you will find that most favorites lose when you find wagering factors  going against them.  Taking the time to separate strong contenders from weak favorites by looking at past performances will give you the chance to make a profit in  horse wagering.
If  you are looking to differentiate between a good favorite and a weak favorite  then you need to do a few basic things when considering longshot bets.
I suggest the following:
You must look at a horse first in  terms of class.  Does the horse have the potential  to seriously compete in the class of today’s horserace?  Has the horse proven ability on today’s racetrack  or a similar one?  Does the horse have  good form in the past few races according to past performances? Can the horse  run at this distance?  Can the horse  handle today’s racetrack conditions?   Does the horse have a good trainer and jockey? You would be surprised at  how many losing favorites have a weak jockey or trainer and how many racing  longshots have solid jockeys and trainers. If you can find that a favorite does  not do well on some of these questions then you should seriously look at  betting against the horse and look at picking longshots.  The price of the horse also is a factor when  considering longshot bets.  If you see a  favorite that is at low race odds and has any question marks then you know it  could be a vulnerable horse and racing longshots could be worth a look.
Going  against horse racing favorites is often a good way to go in horse betting since you will make money in the long term.  These favorites are oftentimes bet by the  public far more than they should be.  Take  the time to analyze the horse race and look for weak favorites and spots to go  against those horses in long shots horseracing.   If you find they are weak then you have a longshot that  could be worth playing.
I do not suggest exotic bets, but if you just need to place such a bet, you may want to  put that longshot horse into exacta, trifecta, superfecta Pick 3 or even Pick 6  tickets.

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