Betting on the NFL in August is a completely different exercise than betting on the same sport a month later. I personally recommend that you do not bet on the NFL preseason games. Below are many of the differences, and some ways the bettor can take advantage of them.
1. Know your coaches. Some coaches care about winning NFL preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Many coaches are simply trying to evaluate personnel — finding the right bodies for the last few spots on the roster — as well as making sure that all the key elements of the offensive and defensive schemes are in place. Other coaches, on the other hand, want to instill a winning attitude for their team right from the start of training camp. Thus, try to back head coaches who care about the outcome of the game, and try to bet against those that do not. In addition, most coaches often increase the length of time that their starters play each week. Short passing plays and fundamentals are the standard fare in week 1 for most coaches and that is why you see dramatically smaller totals in Week 1 around 33-37 point mark for most match ups. Generally, most teams will stick with basic plays and short passes for Week 1 and 2.
2. Consider home field. Home field is a big factor in the NFL regular season and playoffs and usually counts about 3 points depending on where they are playing. However, during NFL preseason, home field is not as important. Especially in week 4 for many teams that have set their depth charts.
3. Local Newspapers and Internet Research. Local sports writers are the best source for your local team as they have direct access to the coaches regularly and need to provide content on a regular deadline. Coaches will often provide a general direction of the game plan for the upcoming week. However, the internet has now taken over getting information on a certain team or coach. Yahoo Sports is a nice NFL sports new aggregator that compile local links. Finding reliable websites in the preseason and bookmarking them will help you set up for the 17 week NFL regular season.
4. Quarterback (QB) Play. In the NFL, the QB is the most important position. That is why the top QBs are getting those big salaries. However, evaluating the quality of the 2nd and 3rd string QBs is critical to handicapping NFL preseason. I suggest that you never buy the hype of NFL rookie QBs in the preseason. Those rookie QBs still need to adjust to the faster speed and larger size of NFL players at every position.
5. Do not forget the totals! Using the quarterback rotations and the coaches philosophy as a guide, predicting totals can be very profitable during the NFL preseason. A pair of coaches looking to develop the running game and/or test inexperienced QB’s often provide solid under bets. On the other hand, when you find two coaches who are looking to test the passing game and have experience at the backup QB position, the over is certainly the way to look.
6. Ignore the starters! In most NFL preseason games, they will generally get the bulk of the media attention, however, they are on the bench by the 2nd quarter. Injury reports are something of a non-factor during the NFL preseason , since it is not the so called “name” players who will be determining the outcome of the game. NFL preseason games, like those in the regular season, are usually won or lost in the 2nd half.
7. Find out what you can about the 3rd and 4th stringers. Usually these are the players who will be on the field in the 2nd half, when the point spread winners and losers will usually be determined. As a general rule of thumb, many of these players are “undrafted rookie free agents”. Teams with more roster spots open will tend to get the better backups during camp. Usually the teams with more roster spots open are usually teams that had poor records the year before, and often preseason underdogs. Try to avoid laying points with playoff bound teams from the previous season with most of their roster spots already filled, since you will find that the quality of their free agent rookies is often quite low. There simply are not a lot of positions open on those type of teams, making them unattractive to the better free agents – the ones with options to go to more than one training camp.
If you follow these simple guidelines, the NFL preseason can be a very profitable for NFL bettors!
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