With such a long season, about 8 months, teams are going to have ups-and-downs, highs and lows, but some of them can be predicted, which gives bettors one advantage when it comes to betting the sport. Below are a few tips which can help you during the season:
1. Do NOT Underestimate Home Court Advantage
Even though most bettors will typically give the home team three or four points when trying to predict the outcome, the home court in the NBA may be worth more than that.
Looking at the 2009-10 season, among playoff teams the combined home record was 476-180, while the same teams on the road were 347-309. Non-playoff teams were 255-319 at home and just 152-422 on the road.
2. Always Check Starting Lineups
What is worse than betting on a team only to find out that their starting point guard is down?
3. Avoid Betting NBA Moneylines
As a rule, it usually is safer to bet the spreads!
4. Differentiate Between Home and Away Scoring
Closely related to the heading above, this one is more concerned with totals, but will also give you additional insight into straight point spread betting, as well. If we look at the Dallas Mavericks, who we mentioned above as being a poor home team against the spread and a strong road team against the number, we will see they averaged 101 points and allowed 98, both home and away, which is the main reason for their spread record.
Speaking of totals, teams like Boston and Denver saw their home games average five or more points than their road games, while a team like Memphis saw their home games average 200 points and their road games average 208.
Naturally, this will affect a team’s performance against the over/under number, as Boston was 22-18 to the over at home and 18-22 away from home, while Denver was 22-19 to the over at home and 16-25 on the road.
Likewise, Memphis was 19-22 to the over at home and 26-14 on the road.
5. Look For Overvalued and Undervalued Teams
There are simply some teams that are going to be overvalued each season and others that will fly under the radar. The overvalued teams are usually pretty easy to guess. Last year it would have Boston, Cleveland and the Lakers.
Only bet when the value is on your side if you want to make money. After handicapping all the games for that day, you will generally find that the oddsmakers have made a weak line. Only play these games. Always remember that the bookmaker is forced to put out a line on every game, you, on the other hand, are NOT forced to bet every game. This means you can pick and choose your spots which in our estimation puts the value on your side if you have properly handicapped a game.
There is no magic formula for winning at the NBA, but you can increase your chances by doing a bit of homework before placing your wagers.
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