Understanding how horse betting odds are created and knowing which groups influence these odds will help you make better handicapping decisions and spot valuable overlays. The way to make money at horse betting is not by picking winners, but by picking winners that pay more than they should!
The odds displayed on the tote board at post time are influenced by three groups of people who are wrong 66 percent of the time. They are:
1. Morning Line Makers - This group of people that influence the odds displayed on the tote board at post time includes those who create the morning line such as public handicappers, newspaper handicapper, and the general public. These people do not consider late workouts, scratches and other changes cannot be taken into account.
2. Public Handicappers - Public handicappers working for newspapers and other off line and online publications are also influenced by the morning line – in fact those that aren’t really handicappers (and there are many) base their selections on a combination of inside tips (almost always wrong) and the aforementioned shaky morning lines. And public handicappers have a strong influence on the general betting public.
The public looks at the morning line in the program, looks at the public handicapper’s selections, sees that they are basically the same, and mistakenly assumes, these guys must know what they are talking about, and compounds the inaccuracies even further by betting more money on their selections.
3. General Public/Insider - These people create hot tips. Especially, those with a stake in the horse. These people are concerned only with their own horse and do NOT take into account the other horses in race. Many insiders think that because their exercise rider or jockey tells them that their horse worked well, that the horse will win. Thus, they tell all their close friends, who in turn tell everyone else, until all the connected money shows up at the windows.
Many bettors assume that a hot tip from someone who works with a certain horse is a good thing. A hot tip can spread like wild fire until it makes its way to the betting windows. These hot tips can come from anyone including trainers, jockeys, exercise riders, owners, grooms, and clockers . They are usually, but not always, a disaster. But why?
The Big Late Money
Many horse bettors like to watch for big money bets that occasionally flow into the mutuel pools just before post time. Many bettors believe that these big late bets are often based on superior insider information and/or information products the general public does not have access to. However, it has been statistically proven that they predict success at about the same rate as the public.
Thus, remember that it pays to do your homework and wait for the odds to work in your favor and not to follow the three groups described above.
Thus remember, that the most profitable approach is not only to become a proficient handicapper, but also to become adept at creating your own odds line.
This article along with other horse betting articles can be found at http://www.racewhisperer.cu.cc/
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