March Madness Trends

Let’s take a look at some of the strongest trends in recent years during March Madness and how to interpret them in order to bet on this year’s tourney.

1.  Do not Get Too “Final Four Happy” With the Top Seeds – You’d have to go back to 2008 to find the last time all four No. 1 seeds—Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA—advanced to the Final Four.  In fact, ESPN Stats & Info has recently pointed out, recent history has seen more No. 1 seeds upset in the Sweet 16 than advance to the Final Four.

2.  You Should Pick One to Win the Title – In a year that has featured tons of parity, and you should stay away from the chalk.  You would be better off picking just one or two top seeds to make it through their respective region.  Did you ever expect Wichita to do what they did?  While the tournament field tends to dwindle the amount of No. 1 seeds, it is hardly ever able to eliminate all of them.   I would suggest that you bet against a number 2 seed to even reach “sweet sixteen”.

3.  For Your Second-Round Upsets, Look to the No. 12 and 13 Seeds - Not counting the “First Four” games, number 12 seed has only won at least one contest in 23 of the past 25 tournaments.  Lately, number 13 seed has also been following number 12 seed

4.  Try not to have a bracket covered in chalk –  In four of the past five tournaments, there has been an upset in precisely 10 of the 32 second-round games.

5.  Do not pick a number 16 seed to win a game.

6.  Consider The Location And Time Of The Game

7.  Take Michigan State To At Least The ”Sweet Sixteen” –  They have advanced to the Sweet 16 in 11 of the past 16 tournaments.

8.  Pick Both Arizona And Syracuse To The “Final Four” – Arizona and Syracuse were ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the AP poll for eight consecutive weeks in the middle of the season.  Thus, it means they have already demonstrated the ability to put together a substantial winning streaks.

9.  Since 2003, the best team to bet on during March Madness has been the Xavier Musketeers.

NOTE:  Many of theses trends did not come true this year - 2014

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