Baseball Underdog System

Sports bettors love their favorites. Oddsmakers set a point spread on a game, and the natural tendency of even many longtime bettors is to think this represents how much a team is “favored” over another to win the game.

I would like to mention that much of the value on betting moneylines comes from the financial upside of going with underdogs. I waited to get into this ingrained in your mind in the article.

I suggest that you only bet on baseball and bet only on underdogs. During the rest of the year you can really take a rest from sports betting!

The basics of baseball underdog system:
The Baseball Underdog System is based on a law of averages showing that, over the long term, MLB underdogs beat favorites about 44% of the time. This is NOT bad since moneyline odds on underdogs earn you better than even money — meaning that at +130 you lay $10 to win $13!
For example, let us assume that you bet $10 on each of 9 underdogs today, with each getting +130 moneyline odds. If you win 4 games using this baseball underdog system, you profit $13 each or $52 total. On the other hand, you lose $50 when 5 favorites win gives since you earn a slim $2 profit overall. Thus, instead of simply betting on the underdogs in every game, you must weed out about two-thirds of the games by following my 3 simple criteria:

1. Eliminate games in which the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. This prevents you from throwing away money on an underdog on a bad skid or an underdog facing a red-hot offensive team whose bats may more than make up for its own mediocre pitching.

2. Eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdog are greater than +150 or so. If the odds are any higher than this, there’s undoubtedly a good reason.

3. Eliminate games in which the underdog is facing one of the Top 20 pitchers in the league, according to earned-run average (ERA). See my article on top 20 pitchers on this site.
For each pitcher ranked, there is much information included, but you are primarily interested in the first 5 columns, which list the pitcher’s rank in the entire league, his name, his team, whether he’s a righty or a lefty, and his NPERA: Rank Name Team R/L.

Because ranked pitchers are broken into categories according to number of innings pitched, make sure you do NOT overlook a pitcher who has been injured or just moved from a reliever to a starter role or otherwise has NOT racked up enough innings to make the primary list. That pitcher could still be among the league’s better pitchers yet is ranked highly in a category of lesser innings pitched further down the screen. This rule applies mostly early part of the season (April and May).
Following the above 3 primary criteria, you should be left with between 3 and 9 underdogs on which to wager.

Just remember, your objective is to bet only on baseball underdogs that have NOT lost 3 or more games in a row and are playing against favorites that have NOT won 3 or more games in a row and are starting mediocre pitchers.

I suggest that you use the formula below to make your bets on baseball underdogs:

How much should you bet – I suggest that you use the following formula in the Baseball Underdog System , which is .0125 x your Bankroll = Series Amount.

In summary:

1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150 or so.

2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row.

3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team’s pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA see my article on “Top 20 Pitchers”.

4) On a day with a full slate of games, you should be left with 3 to 9 games to bet on between the AL and NL. And do NOT forget to shop around at all your favorite sports books for the best possible moneyline odds.

Before making the next day’s bets, roll your profits into your bankroll and increase your wagers accordingly, putting 1.25% of your bankroll on each game.

Betting With Two Great Pitchers

When betting on the Baseball Underdog System, I always incorporate a second set of plays every day on games in which both pitchers are ranked in the Top 20 in the league, always on the “under” total set by oddsmakers. As you might expect, these “pitchers duels” often go under the total set by the bookmakers, usually somewhere between 7.5 and 9 runs.